（Singapore, 06.10.2025）The OPEC+ alliance has agreed to a modest increase in oil production for November, as top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a fragile compromise amid growing concerns that the global oil market may soon face a supply glut.
In a statement released Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies confirmed that they would add 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supply next month — the same level of increase approved for October. The decision highlights the group’s cautious approach to balancing market stability with the desire to regain lost market share.
The meeting, which lasted just nine minutes, reflected that most of the negotiation work had already been done in advance through private consultations among member countries. The next official gathering of OPEC+ is scheduled for November 2.
The decision followed weeks of debate between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group’s two largest oil exporters. According to delegates, Moscow favored keeping production increases limited to avoid further pressure on prices, which recently dipped to a four-month low, while Riyadh pushed for a larger boost to recover some of its market share lost during previous cuts.
Oil analysts said that the latest agreement underscores the delicate balancing act the alliance is attempting to maintain. On one hand, OPEC+ members want to take advantage of recovering global demand and prevent rival producers, particularly U.S. shale companies, from dominating the market. On the other, they are wary of flooding an already fragile market where signs of oversupply are becoming more evident.
“OPEC+ is walking a tightrope,” said Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Rystad Energy.
“The group wants to restore some of the barrels it cut during the downturn, but it has also seen how nervous traders have become about the possibility of a glut. Stability is their priority right now.”
Oil Prices Under Pressure
On Friday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell below $65 per barrel, down from this year’s peak of around $82. Prices remain above the lows of $60 per barrel seen in May, but investors are increasingly cautious. Analysts forecast that global oil inventories could start to build up rapidly in the final quarter of the year, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that a record surplus could emerge by 2026 as demand slows and production in the Americas expands.
The IEA has been notably more bearish than OPEC in its outlook. While OPEC maintains that the global economy remains on a stable footing and that oil inventories are relatively low, independent observers point to a rising number of unsold cargoes in the Middle East and softening futures prices as early signs that the market may be turning.
“Brent prices could remain under pressure if demand growth continues to cool and new supply keeps coming online,” said Scott Shelton of TP ICAP Group. “Still, the modest size of OPEC+’s latest increase might lift prices slightly — perhaps by up to $1 per barrel — when markets open on Monday.”
From Deep Cuts to Gradual Increases
This year has marked a major policy shift for the OPEC+ coalition. After years of maintaining deep production cuts to support prices, the group began gradually restoring supply in early 2025 to recapture market share.
At its peak in March, OPEC+ had reduced total production by 5.85 million barrels per day, through a combination of voluntary and group-wide curtailments. Those cuts were implemented in three layers: 2.2 million barrels voluntarily reduced by key producers, another 1.65 million from eight member countries, and 2 million from the broader group.
The eight key producers — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait — have already restored much of the first 2.2 million bpd cut by the end of September. They began easing the second tranche of 1.65 million bpd in October with the initial 137,000-barrel daily increase, now set to continue in November.
However, some analysts say the group’s efforts have revealed the limits of spare capacity available within OPEC+. Despite promises to restore output, data shows that only about 60% of the barrels scheduled for return between May and September were actually produced. Several countries are still compensating for past overproduction, while others may already be pumping close to their maximum sustainable levels.
Saudi Arabia and Russia Find Middle Ground
According to sources familiar with the talks, Russia entered Sunday’s meeting pushing for a repeat of October’s modest increase, arguing that a larger hike could weaken prices further and that Moscow’s own ability to raise production remains constrained by Western sanctions related to its war in Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia, by contrast, argued for a much bigger boost — anywhere between 274,000 and 548,000 barrels per day — pointing to its available capacity and desire to regain market share more quickly. The compromise reached at 137,000 bpd suggests that Riyadh was willing to scale back its ambitions to maintain unity within the alliance.
The timing of the decision is also politically sensitive. It comes just weeks before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to visit Washington, where he will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly urged oil producers to keep prices low to support consumers and the global economy.
Neither Saudi nor Russian officials immediately commented on the outcome of Sunday’s meeting.
Despite the modest increase, OPEC+ faces growing skepticism from traders and analysts who fear that the alliance could be overestimating the strength of global demand. The IEA projects that oil consumption growth will continue to slow into 2026, while new production from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana is expected to add millions of barrels per day to global supply.
For now, OPEC+ remains confident that its gradual, month-by-month adjustments will prevent a sharp market downturn. But if inventories begin to rise sharply in the months ahead, the group may need to revisit its strategy.
