（Singapore, 23.02.2026）A dramatic turn in US trade policy has reshaped the global economic landscape, with China, India and several emerging markets emerging as unexpected winners.
The shift came after the US Supreme Court struck down former President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping global tariffs. The ruling effectively dismantled what had been one of the most aggressive tariff regimes in recent years — offering relief to countries that were hardest hit.
A Trade Reset Brings Relief for Asia
Under Trump’s earlier measures, many countries faced elevated tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). But the Supreme Court ruled that the law could not be used to justify such broad trade penalties.
Following the decision, Trump announced a new 15% across-the-board tariff using a different legal tool — Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act — which allows temporary tariffs for up to 150 days.
While that may sound significant, economists say the overall tariff burden is actually lighter than before.
Bloomberg Economics estimates the new structure results in an average effective US tariff rate of about 12% — the lowest level since Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs were introduced last April.
For Asia, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate the weighted average tariff rate will fall to 17%, down from 20%. Tariffs on Chinese goods are projected to decline to 24% from 32%.
In short, countries that were previously penalized the most are now seeing relief.
China stands to benefit notably. In addition to lower general tariff rates, a separate 10% “fentanyl-related” tariff has also been scrapped by the courts.
Although the US still maintains other tariffs on China — with officials noting that average duties can reach 40% through different mechanisms — the removal of emergency-based tariffs reduces immediate pressure on Chinese exporters.
India is also viewed as a relative winner. Previously facing higher rates under Trump’s tariff framework, Indian exporters now see more favorable access to the US market.
Asian equity markets reacted positively. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong rallied, and technology shares across the region gained on expectations that trade tensions may ease, at least temporarily.
Morgan Stanley economists said the “peak level of uncertainty on tariffs and trade tensions has passed,” suggesting businesses may now operate in a more stable environment.
Europe Pushes Back as Trade Advantages Shift
Not everyone benefits from the reset.
Countries such as the UK and Australia had negotiated relatively favorable 10% tariff rates under earlier bilateral arrangements. With the new 15% global rate, they are now worse off.
Similarly, Japan — which previously faced a 15% rate that gave it an edge over higher-tariff competitors — has seen that advantage disappear, since 15% is now applied broadly.
Canada and Mexico, on the other hand, may benefit significantly. Both had faced fentanyl-related tariffs, which have now been removed. If exemptions under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remain intact, analysts say they could be in a “very favorable position.”
The European Union has reacted strongly to the sudden policy shift.
Last year, the EU reached a deal with Washington setting a 15% tariff ceiling on most exports to the US, with some sectors such as aircraft enjoying zero tariffs.
Now, European officials are seeking clarity on whether the new 15% global tariff replaces or overrides that agreement.
The European Commission stated bluntly: “A deal is a deal,” emphasizing that EU products must continue to receive the most competitive treatment agreed previously.
Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, has proposed freezing ratification of the EU-US trade agreement until Washington provides full legal clarity.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also questioned whether the agreement remains valid, saying Europe would take necessary measures in response.
The EU estimates it could be 0.8 percentage points worse off under the new framework, with countries like Italy facing even larger impacts.
Markets Cautious as Uncertainty Remains
Global financial markets responded with mixed signals.
US stock futures slipped as investors assessed the policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 futures fell modestly, while the dollar stabilized after earlier weakness. Gold prices climbed, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Some analysts warn that while tariff levels may have eased overall, uncertainty remains high.
Stephan Kemper of BNP Paribas Wealth Management noted that the court ruling may not significantly change short-term realities, but it adds complexity. “Donald Trump is not known to avoid a fight,” he said.
JPMorgan strategists added that ongoing tariff uncertainty could delay business investment decisions, as companies struggle to plan amid shifting rules.
Senior US officials have sought to reassure trading partners that previously negotiated deals remain valid.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration intends to honor existing agreements with China, the EU, Japan and South Korea.
“We’re going to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them,” Greer said in televised interviews.
He also confirmed that Trump plans to visit Beijing starting March 31 for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, signaling that diplomatic engagement continues despite legal setbacks.
Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that the combination of the court ruling and the new 15% tariff reduces the overall increase in effective US tariffs since early 2025 only slightly from just over 10 percentage points to about 9 percentage points.
That suggests the broader economic impact may be limited.
For now, China, India and several emerging markets are enjoying a rare moment of relief. But with the Trump administration signaling it may rebuild its tariff regime through new legal tools and sector-specific duties, global trade policy remains in flux and markets will continue watching closely.
