（Singapore, 01.04.2026）Global financial markets staged a strong rebound after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington could end its military campaign against Iran within weeks, raising hopes of a near-term de-escalation in a conflict that has disrupted energy supplies and shaken investor confidence.
Speaking to reporters, Trump said the United States could withdraw from the conflict in “two to three weeks,” even without a diplomatic agreement. The operation, referred to by Washington as “Operation Epic Fury,” has contributed to a broader regional escalation that has already claimed thousands of lives and strained global supply chains.
The White House said Trump will deliver a national address on Wednesday night (U.S. time) to provide further updates on the conflict, a speech that investors are closely watching for clearer policy direction. Market participants are seeking signals on whether Washington intends to fully disengage or maintain a limited presence in the region.
However, Trump’s comments were accompanied by renewed criticism of NATO, warning that the U.S. could reconsider its membership if European allies fail to help counter Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The mixed messaging has reinforced concerns about policy uncertainty at a critical moment for global markets.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there remains a possibility of direct talks with Iran, though he signaled that any breakthrough is not imminent. He added that while discussions could take place at some point, the situation on the ground remains fluid and complex, with multiple regional actors involved.
Analysts note that Washington’s shifting tone, alternating between military pressure and diplomatic openness, has made it difficult for markets to price in a clear endgame for the conflict. This uncertainty has contributed to heightened volatility across asset classes in recent weeks.
Energy Disruptions Deepen as Supply Routes Strained
Despite optimism over a potential ceasefire, the global energy outlook remains fragile. The International Energy Agency’s executive director Fatih Birol warned that oil supply losses in April could be twice as severe as in March, as the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to tighten fuel availability.
Shortages of jet fuel and diesel have already begun to emerge in parts of Asia and could soon spread to Europe, underscoring the broader economic impact of the conflict. Refiners and airlines are among the sectors most immediately affected, as supply chains struggle to adjust to the sudden constraints.
The risks to energy infrastructure and transport were highlighted on Wednesday when a tanker operating for QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters. No casualties were reported, but the incident underscores the increasing threats facing maritime traffic across the Gulf.
At the same time, the conflict has significantly disrupted production and exports in the region. Attacks on gas infrastructure have reduced Qatar’s liquefied natural gas output, while Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil exporters, has been forced to reroute shipments away from the Persian Gulf.
Data cited by Bloomberg showed Saudi crude exports fell by roughly half in March, as tankers struggled to pass through the blocked waterway. Although the kingdom has redirected flows through its East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports, millions of barrels remain stranded, limiting the effectiveness of these workarounds.
In addition, logistical bottlenecks and rising insurance costs for shipping through high-risk zones have further complicated global oil distribution. Shipping firms are either rerouting vessels or demanding higher premiums, adding to overall transportation costs and contributing to upward pressure on energy prices.
The disruption has also raised concerns about longer-term supply security, particularly for Asian economies that rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports. Countries such as China, India and Japan are closely monitoring the situation as they assess contingency plans and alternative sourcing options.
Relief Rally Masks Ongoing Economic Risks
Investor sentiment improved sharply following Trump’s remarks, with equities across Asia, Europe and the United States posting their strongest gains in months. The rally was driven largely by expectations that a U.S. withdrawal could ease geopolitical tensions and stabilize energy markets.
Major indices recorded significant gains, while bond yields declined and the U.S. dollar weakened, reflecting a shift toward riskier assets. The rebound marked a sharp reversal from the defensive positioning seen earlier in the conflict, when investors had flocked to safe-haven assets.
However, analysts caution that the rebound may be premature. Much of the market movement appears to be driven by positioning rather than fundamentals, with investors reacting to the possibility of de-escalation rather than concrete developments on the ground.
Oil prices, while volatile, remain significantly elevated compared to pre-conflict levels. Futures markets indicate that crude prices are likely to stay higher for longer, raising concerns about inflation, corporate margins and consumer demand.
Strategists note that the full economic impact of the conflict has yet to be reflected in earnings forecasts. Higher energy costs are expected to weigh on businesses globally, particularly in Asia, where many economies depend heavily on imported oil and gas. Sectors such as transportation, manufacturing and consumer goods are seen as particularly vulnerable to sustained cost pressures.
At the same time, capital flows suggest continued caution among investors. Recent data shows substantial outflows from emerging Asian markets, highlighting persistent uncertainty despite the recent rally. Some fund managers have indicated a preference for holding higher cash levels until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical outlook.
There are also concerns that prolonged energy disruptions could complicate monetary policy decisions. Central banks may face a difficult trade-off between controlling inflation driven by higher oil prices and supporting economic growth amid rising uncertainty.
Ongoing military activity across the Middle East, including missile and drone attacks targeting energy assets and shipping routes, continues to pose risks. Markets are now closely watching Trump’s upcoming address for further clarity on U.S. strategy and the potential trajectory of the conflict, as well as any signals on whether tensions in the region are likely to ease or intensify in the weeks ahead.
