（Singapore, 12.12.2025）Thailand is heading toward an early general election after Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament, a dramatic move that comes just months after he took office and amid a widening border conflict with Cambodia.
Anutin announced the decision late Thursday on Facebook, saying he was “returning power to the people.” Soon after, King Maha Vajiralongkorn endorsed the request to dissolve the 500-seat House of Representatives, a constitutional requirement before new polls can be called. Under Thai laws, the election must be held within 45 to 60 days, placing the likely voting window between late January and February.
The surprise dissolution follows days of political tension and growing speculation that the opposition People’s Party — currently the biggest bloc in parliament — would launch a no-confidence motion against Anutin’s minority government. The party’s move was expected after its push for greater influence by elected lawmakers in an ongoing constitutional amendment process was defeated in parliament. Had the no-confidence motion been filed, it would likely have toppled the fragile coalition.
Anutin’s rise to power in September came through a political deal with the People’s Party, which had agreed to support his premiership on the condition that his government would begin amending the constitution and dissolve the house by late January. But that alliance quickly soured.
Chaos erupted during a joint sitting of parliament on Thursday night when lawmakers from Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and conservative senators voted against a key clause that would have strengthened the role of elected representatives in the charter-amending process. This reversal prompted People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut to accuse Anutin of breaking their agreement, setting off expectations of an imminent no-confidence challenge.
The legislative turmoil pushed Anutin to make the pre-emptive decision to dissolve parliament, effectively resetting the political playing field.
A Nation Facing Multiple Crises
The election will take place as Thailand grapples with several overlapping challenges — political instability, a slowing economy and rising geopolitical tensions.
Economically, the country has been struggling to keep pace with its Southeast Asian neighbors. The economy grew just 1.2% in the previous quarter, weighed down by weak factory output, declining tourist arrivals, severe flooding in the south and pressure from U.S. tariffs. Analysts warn that policy paralysis in the weeks leading up to the election may further unsettle foreign investors. More than US$3 billion has already been pulled out of Thai equities this year, and the SET Index is among 2025’s worst-performing stock markets globally, falling about 13% over the past 12 months.
Domestic outflows have also pressured stock performance. While Thai shares have not rebounded strongly since mid-year, the baht has proven comparatively resilient — appreciating more than 7% against the U.S. dollar this year. This strength is partly due to the nation’s current account surplus and the baht’s close correlation with gold prices, which surged in 2025.
Border Conflict Adds Pressure
At the same time, tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have escalated sharply. Fighting between the two countries entered its fifth day on Friday, resulting in at least 20 deaths, nearly 200 injuries and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians.
Almost a dozen Thai soldiers have been killed according to additional tallies, and the violence has become a major political issue for Anutin. Since becoming Thailand’s third prime minister in two years, he has adopted a tough stance on the conflict, a move political observers say is aimed at rallying nationalist support ahead of the election.
However, his response to recent severe flooding in Thailand’s south has been criticised for being slow and inconsistent. Analysts note that nationalist momentum could benefit him in the near term, but delaying the election could risk that advantage fading.
“Anutin has used nationalistic sentiment to mobilize support and his popularity has been on the rise,” said political science lecturer Titipol Phakdeewanich of Ubon Ratchathani University. “He risks it souring if he leaves it for longer.”
The border clashes have also drawn the attention of the international community. U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to call both Thai and Cambodian leaders in an effort to calm tensions, repeating an intervention he attempted several months earlier when fighting broke out.
Anutin has said his decision to dissolve parliament will not disrupt the government’s management of the conflict, and his spokesperson reassured the public that the caretaker administration maintains “full authority.”
What’s at Stake in the Election
The upcoming vote is expected to be a direct contest between Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and the People’s Party led by Natthaphong. Recent polls have consistently ranked the progressive opposition as the country’s most popular political force. However, its predecessor — which won the 2023 election — was blocked from forming a government by lawmakers aligned with the military and was later dissolved over proposals to amend Thailand’s strict royal defamation law.
If no party secures a majority, Thailand risks falling into yet another cycle of short-lived governments. The country has spent the past two decades in a tug-of-war between conservative elites and reformist movements, resulting in repeated coups, court interventions and unstable coalitions.
Anutin, a former business tycoon known for championing cannabis liberalisation, has tried to bolster his popularity by rolling out cash incentives and economic stimulus measures. But the economy contracted 0.6% in the latest reported quarter, adding urgency to the political debate over Thailand’s future direction.
With the election now only weeks away, Thailand is entering another period of uncertainty — one shaped by political drama, economic headwinds and a dangerous conflict along its border. Whether the early vote can break the country’s cycle of instability remains an open question.
