（Singapore, 27.03.2026）Global oil markets are facing mounting uncertainty as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran continues to intensify, raising concerns over supply disruptions and the risk of a prolonged energy shock. Crude prices have already climbed above US$100 per barrel, with analysts warning that sustained escalation could drive prices to record levels.
Research by Macquarie Group Ltd. suggests oil could reach as high as US$200 per barrel if the war extends into June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The bank outlined this as a plausible scenario, while noting that there remains a higher likelihood of an earlier resolution if diplomatic efforts gain traction in the coming weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of the crisis. This narrow waterway is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, carrying a significant share of global crude and refined products. Since the outbreak of hostilities, access has been heavily restricted, disrupting shipments and tightening supply across international markets.
Prices have reacted sharply, with Brent crude rising to nearly US$120 per barrel earlier this month before easing to around US$108. While still below the historical peak recorded in 2008, the current trend underscores how sensitive the market remains to geopolitical developments. Analysts caution that if disruptions persist, prices may need to rise further to curb demand and restore balance.
Developments on the ground remain fluid as US President Donald Trump extends the deadline for potential strikes on Iranian energy facilities by ten days to April 6, signaling that negotiations are still in progress. The move offers a brief window for diplomacy, though uncertainty persists over whether meaningful progress can be achieved.
At the same time, the United States is increasing its military presence in the region, raising concerns that the conflict could escalate further. Iran has rejected key proposals and continues its military response, while also demanding security guarantees and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has already resulted in significant casualties and heightened the risk of broader regional involvement.
In an unexpected turn, Iran has managed to sustain its oil exports despite the ongoing conflict, allowing it to benefit from elevated global prices. The steady flow of shipments has supported its daily oil revenue and helped cushion the economic impact of continued military strikes.
Export volumes have remained resilient, averaging about 1.6 million barrels per day between March 1 and 23, broadly in line with prewar levels, according to TankerTrackers.com. Shipments were already on an upward trend even before hostilities began on Feb. 28, with February loads reaching their highest level since mid-2018 based on Kpler data.
This stands in contrast to other producers in the region, many of whom are grappling with disruptions caused by infrastructure damage and logistical constraints that have curtailed their export capacity.
For Asia, the consequences are immediate. Many economies in the region depend heavily on energy imports from the Middle East, making them particularly vulnerable to supply shocks.
In Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim confirmed that Iran has allowed several Malaysian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, offering some relief to ships that had been stranded. However, the government is also urging both public and private sectors to adopt energy-saving measures as a precaution against prolonged disruption.
Across the region, governments are taking steps to manage the situation. Japan has begun releasing oil from its strategic reserves to support domestic supply and stabilize the market. Officials have indicated that these reserves are primarily intended for internal use, although discussions are ongoing on potential coordination with international partners if conditions worsen.
Other Asian economies are also seeking alternative solutions. Some are exploring new supply sources, including imports from the United States and Central Asia, while others are focusing on demand management through conservation efforts. The situation has underscored the importance of energy diversification and strategic reserves in managing external shocks.
The rise in oil prices is also fueling broader economic concerns as higher energy costs are expected to push up inflation, adding pressure on households and businesses. The OECD has already revised its inflation outlook for major economies, reflecting the impact of rising fuel prices on global cost structures.
Market sentiment remains highly sensitive to any shift in the conflict. A successful diplomatic resolution could ease supply concerns and stabilize prices, while further escalation could trigger another surge in oil markets.
For now, the balance between negotiation and military action will play a crucial role in determining the direction of both the conflict and global energy prices. If the situation drags on, the risk of a more severe and prolonged oil shock will continue to grow, with significant implications for economies worldwide.
