（Singapore, 10.11.2026）Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, as expanding renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption begin to make a measurable difference in the fight against climate change.
The latest Global Carbon Budget report projects that fossil fuel emissions will fall by 0.4% to 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide this year, compared with the record level reached in 2025.
While the decline offers an encouraging sign that cleaner energy technologies are beginning to influence global emissions, researchers caution that higher energy prices and disruptions to oil supplies have also contributed to the reduction.
Oil-related emissions are projected to fall by 1.9%, largely because of supply disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran, which pushed up energy prices and reduced consumption. Natural gas emissions are expected to decline by 0.3%, while coal emissions could still rise by 0.6%.
The findings, released as world leaders gather for the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, underline the difficulty of distinguishing lasting progress in reducing fossil fuel dependence from temporary changes caused by economic and geopolitical pressures.
Glen Peters, a research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, warned that a single year of falling emissions does not necessarily mean the world has reached a lasting turning point.
“A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” he said.
Solar and Wind Make a Growing Difference
Beyond the short-term impact of higher fossil fuel prices, the report highlights the increasingly important contribution of renewable energy to reducing global emissions.
Solar and wind power have expanded rapidly over the past decade, generating more electricity that would otherwise have been produced using fossil fuels. Their growing contribution is particularly significant as electricity demand continues to rise alongside economic development and the electrification of transport and other activities.
In 2010, solar and wind power together prevented an estimated 280 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. By 2025, that figure had climbed to 4.1 billion tonnes, with a further increase to 4.6 billion tonnes projected for 2026.
The figures illustrate how cleaner electricity generation is beginning to reshape the global emissions trajectory, reducing the amount of fossil fuel combustion that would otherwise accompany rising energy consumption.
According to the researchers, solar power, wind power and electric vehicles are now meeting roughly two-thirds of the additional global energy demand. Looking ahead to 2028, the expansion of clean technologies could offset between 64% and 79% of the emissions that would otherwise result from growing energy demand.
China has played a particularly significant role in this transition, accounting for approximately half of the emissions avoided globally through renewable energy and electric vehicles.
The country, which accounts for around 32% of global fossil fuel emissions, is expected to record a 0.9% reduction in 2026. Although coal-related emissions are projected to rise slightly, declining oil consumption and the continued expansion of renewable electricity generation are helping to moderate its overall emissions.
Other major economies are also showing signs of improvement. Fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 1.3% in the United States and 1.5% in the European Union, while Japan is expected to register a 1% reduction.
India, however, is moving in the opposite direction, with emissions forecast to increase by 4.4%, highlighting the different challenges countries face as energy demand and economic activity continue to expand.
The report also found that 59 countries recorded lower emissions in 2025 than in 2019, despite continued economic growth, suggesting that some economies are beginning to weaken the traditional link between economic expansion and rising carbon emissions.
Corinne Le Quéré, a climate change scientist at the University of East Anglia, noted that solar and wind power, alongside electric vehicles, are already making a meaningful contribution to reducing emissions growth, particularly as clean technologies expand rapidly in China.
However, researchers emphasised that the pace of deployment must accelerate further if these gains are to translate into a sustained global decline in carbon emissions.
Falling Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Not the Whole Picture
Despite the projected reduction in emissions from fossil fuels, total global carbon dioxide emissions could still reach a new record once changes in land use are taken into account.
The report estimates that overall emissions, including those associated with deforestation and land degradation, will rise to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes last year.
Emissions from land-use changes alone are projected to reach 5.1 billion tonnes, partly because of increased peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, where drier conditions linked to El Niño have contributed to environmental pressures.
Although forests and other natural ecosystems absorb substantial amounts of carbon dioxide, deforestation continues to undermine their ability to offset human-generated emissions.
Between 2016 and 2025, permanent deforestation released approximately 3.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Reforestation and the establishment of new forests helped absorb some of these emissions, but offset only about half of the amount released through permanent forest loss.
The findings demonstrate how progress in renewable energy can be weakened by environmental damage elsewhere, reinforcing the need to address both fossil fuel consumption and land-use emissions.
Researchers also estimate that the world’s remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels stands at approximately 150 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.
Meanwhile, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026, approximately 54% higher than pre-industrial levels.
The report nevertheless identifies growing evidence that clean energy technologies are changing the relationship between economic growth and emissions, with solar and wind power increasingly helping to meet additional electricity demand without a corresponding rise in fossil fuel generation.
Scientists say further expansion of renewable energy, electric vehicles and energy storage could bring the world closer to a sustained peak in carbon emissions within the next few years, provided these developments continue at a faster pace.
Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the Global Carbon Budget research at the University of Exeter, said the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions was encouraging, but warned that reductions driven partly by geopolitical disruptions would not provide a lasting climate solution.
He stressed that accelerating the deployment of clean energy technologies remains essential to achieving sustained reductions in global emissions.
