（Singapore, 11.09.2026）Brent crude traded near US$107 a barrel on Friday as escalating fighting between Yemen’s Houthi movement and Saudi-backed forces raised fears that another crucial Middle East shipping route could come under greater pressure, adding to disruptions already affecting the Strait of Hormuz.
The global oil benchmark surged more than 6% in the previous session and was heading for its biggest weekly gain since July, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded around US$102 a barrel. Brent has now risen almost 80% since the start of the year, although it remains below the wartime peak of just above US$126 reached in April.
The latest jump came as Iran-aligned Houthi forces advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, seizing the port city of Mocha and moving towards strategic islands near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, according to Reuters. The waterway connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is one of the world’s most important shipping routes, making any threat to traffic there another potential shock for global energy markets.
The development is particularly significant for Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, which has relied more heavily on its Red Sea export route since the war severely disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis strengthen their position around Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi oil shipments could face greater risks at both ends of the Arabian Peninsula.
RBC Capital Markets analysts said a return to a full-scale conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could push oil towards their higher-price scenario, as control around Mocha would put the group closer to the narrowest part of Bab al-Mandeb and potentially increase its ability to disrupt shipping further south.
Two vital shipping routes under pressure
The new threat comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the wider conflict between the United States and Iran, with about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passing through the narrow waterway before the war. Volumes have since fallen sharply as attacks and military operations make shipping increasingly dangerous.
Some crude exports are still moving through Hormuz, including tankers operating with their transponders switched off to make them harder to track, although vessels continue to face the threat of attack. The UK Maritime Trade Operations received a report that two ships were struck by unidentified projectiles west of Khasab, Oman, on Sept 10, highlighting the continuing risks to commercial shipping.
Ship traffic also appears to have weakened again after signs of improvement, with preliminary tracking data cited by Reuters showing just seven vessels passed through Hormuz on Wednesday, about half the average recorded over the previous 10 days.
The US-Iran conflict is meanwhile showing few signs of ending soon as Tehran signals that it intends to keep fighting despite mounting economic pressure, while Washington steps up sanctions and maintains a naval blockade aimed at weakening Iran’s economy. Iranian officials have warned that the country could intensify attacks on US and Gulf assets if Washington escalates its military campaign.
President Donald Trump said late Thursday that he did not expect the conflict to continue through the remainder of his term and suggested it could end before the November midterm elections, although his comments came amid reports that senior White House advisers have warned the confrontation could last much longer.
The Houthis have opened another front in the regional conflict by targeting Saudi infrastructure and threatening vessels using Saudi Red Sea ports, which have become increasingly important as an alternative to the Persian Gulf route. Saudi energy facilities have already been hit in recent attacks, forcing some operations to halt, while the kingdom reported that oil production fell again last month to its lowest level since 1990.
Energy shock spreads beyond crude
The impact of the conflict is increasingly being felt beyond crude oil, with European natural gas prices, tanker freight rates and refined fuel prices all climbing as traders reassess how long disruptions to Middle East energy supplies could last.
Diesel has emerged as one of the biggest pressure points, with US prices rising above US$6 a gallon for the first time and reaching a national average of about US$6.06, while prices in California approached US$8 a gallon.
Higher diesel costs can spread quickly through the wider economy because the fuel is heavily used in trucking, agriculture, construction, power generation and heating, meaning consumers who do not buy diesel directly can still face higher food and transport costs. Demand is also expected to strengthen heading into the US autumn as agricultural and heating consumption increases.
The shortage has been compounded by disruptions outside the Middle East, with months of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries prompting Moscow to impose a diesel export ban, while reduced refining capacity and unreliable shipping through Hormuz have limited Middle Eastern fuel supplies.
Oil markets are also becoming more sensitive to demand as global inventories decline, while a recent increase in crude purchases by China has provided another source of support for prices after early signs of a recovery in consumption by the world’s largest oil importer.
Hamad Hussain, a commodities economist at Capital Economics, said investors appear to be revising their expectations for both the severity and duration of the Iran war. With global inventories depleted and Chinese demand showing early signs of recovery, another disruption to Middle East oil flows could push prices back towards the highs reached earlier in the conflict.
Diplomatic attention is shifting to Monday, when foreign ministers from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart as Oman and Iran seek regional support for a temporary arrangement governing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Any agreement that allows more tankers to pass safely could help ease supply pressure, although the latest Houthi advance around Bab al-Mandeb has added a new uncertainty for traders.
