（Singapore, 09.07.2026）The World Cup is not only attracting billions of football fans and sports bettors. It is also creating a new market for companies looking to protect themselves against financial losses caused by unexpected results on the pitch.
According to Bloomberg, Susquehanna International Group has set aside US$500 million (S$647 million) to work with institutions seeking to use prediction markets to hedge economic risks linked to different World Cup outcomes.
The Philadelphia-area trading firm said the funds would be made available to facilitate trades for companies whose businesses could be affected by whether certain teams win or lose.
Ric Best, head of prediction markets at Susquehanna, said potential clients could include sponsors, media and broadcast partners, hospitality providers and consumer brands.
These companies may face financial risks from promotions, rebates, giveaways and other customer incentives tied to the performance of particular teams.
For example, a retailer might promise customers refunds if a national team wins the World Cup, while a sponsor or hospitality company could see demand fall sharply if a popular team is knocked out earlier than expected.
By using prediction markets, companies could take positions that generate returns when an unfavorable sporting outcome occurs, helping to offset losses elsewhere in their businesses.
Prediction markets operate in a similar way to traditional betting platforms by allowing participants to trade contracts based on whether a real-world event will happen.
However, the growing industry has pushed back against being classified simply as gambling. Supporters argue that prediction markets also serve an economic purpose by allowing companies and investors to hedge risks linked to events ranging from elections and extreme weather to sporting competitions.
The rapid growth of sports trading has added to the debate.
Critics say sports have become among the most popular events traded on prediction exchanges, making the platforms increasingly difficult to distinguish from conventional gambling businesses.
Prediction market operators, however, argue that companies with genuine economic exposure to sporting results can use the platforms as risk-management tools.
There have already been examples of such strategies in professional football.
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna said last month that it spent €1.2 million, or about S$1.77 million, on an insurance policy that would have paid €6 million (S$8.86 million) if the club had been relegated from Spain’s top division.
The ongoing World Cup has also demonstrated how football results can affect companies and investors.
Morgan Stanley analysts said this week that beer sales in Latin America could fall short of investor expectations after Brazil and Mexico were eliminated from the tournament.
An early exit by a major team can reduce consumer interest, television audiences and spending on food, beverages and merchandise, creating financial consequences far beyond the football pitch.
Susquehanna and its billionaire founder Jeffrey Yass have become prominent supporters of the prediction market industry.
The trading firm was the first major Wall Street company to announce that it was working as a market maker on Kalshi, which has grown into the largest prediction market exchange.
Susquehanna has also launched its own prediction market exchange, Rothera, together with Robinhood Markets.
The company said its World Cup-related transactions would be carried out on regulated U.S. exchanges, although it did not identify which platforms would be used.
The arrangement is similar to practices already common in traditional futures markets.
Companies or investors planning to place large trades often secure trading capacity from market makers before submitting their orders to an exchange. Market makers provide liquidity and help ensure that large transactions can be completed without causing excessive market disruption.
Susquehanna believes a similar model can be used for large prediction market transactions linked to World Cup results.
The US$500 million commitment comes as prediction markets experience rapid growth, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket handling billions of dollars in World Cup-related trades.
The industry’s expansion has also attracted growing scrutiny.
Recent controversies have included allegations of insider trading linked to military operations, manipulated temperature readings and threats against journalists, raising questions about market integrity and the need for stronger regulatory oversight.
Supporters of prediction markets argue that the platforms can help businesses and investors better understand and manage uncertainty.
Beyond sports, prediction markets have been used to forecast elections, geopolitical developments, economic trends and extreme weather events.
The growing use of artificial intelligence is also expected to reshape the industry, with AI systems increasingly able to analyze large amounts of information and generate probability forecasts.
For the World Cup, Susquehanna’s US$500 million commitment represents an effort to move prediction markets beyond individual traders and sports fans by attracting companies with direct financial exposure to tournament results.
As global sporting events become increasingly commercialized, the performance of a team can affect everything from advertising campaigns and television audiences to merchandise sales and consumer spending, creating a new opportunity for financial firms to turn uncertainty on the pitch into a market for managing business risk.
