（Singapore, 21.09.2026）A worsening shipping crisis in the Black Sea is threatening one of the world’s most important food supply routes, pushing wheat prices to three-year highs and forcing buyers from Asia to Africa to search for alternative supplies at higher costs.
While global markets have focused heavily on the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices, disruption in the Black Sea is creating another inflation risk. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, making the region as important to wheat markets as Hormuz is to seaborne oil flows.
Grain shipments have been severely disrupted since July as Russia and Ukraine stepped up attacks on each other’s ports, grain terminals, storage facilities and vessels. Combined wheat exports from the two countries are estimated to fall to roughly half last year’s level during the July-to-September harvest period, according to researcher SovEcon.
The disruption is already being felt thousands of kilometres away. Golden Wheat, a milling company near Ho Chi Minh City, had secured four Black Sea wheat cargoes equivalent to about one-fifth of its annual requirements before learning that shipments would be disrupted.
The Vietnamese company managed to replace two cargoes with Bulgarian wheat and turned to the United States for additional supplies, but at a much higher cost. Chief Executive Officer Tue Vuong told Bloomberg that the experience showed how exposed the company had become to disruptions in the Black Sea.
Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of more than wheat. Together they account for about two-thirds of global sunflower oil trade and roughly 10% of corn shipments, meaning prolonged disruption could eventually feed through to flour, bread, animal feed and other food prices around the world.
Buyers scramble for alternative supplies
The search for replacement grain is spreading rapidly as traditional buyers try to reduce their dependence on the Black Sea. France recently loaded its first wheat shipment to Sudan in 18 years, while Libya turned to the French port of Rouen for the first time in more than a decade.
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have sought supplies from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, while Bangladesh is looking at Romania and Argentina and buying small amounts from India, which recently ended a years-long export ban. Buyers are even approaching Australia before its latest harvest has been collected.
William Reid, wheat trading manager at Australian grain merchant CBH Group, said inquiries were arriving from around the world, with demand in some cases having to be rationed because suppliers could not immediately replace the missing Black Sea volumes.
The problem is that other major agricultural regions have limited room to fill the gap. Drought has hurt wheat and corn production in the US, while heat waves have damaged crops in Europe. A powerful El Niño is creating additional uncertainty over agricultural production heading into 2027.
Chicago wheat futures have already risen more than 40% this year, while disruption to Russian energy infrastructure has pushed up diesel costs, adding another layer of pressure on farmers.
Russia is trying to redirect grain through Kazakhstan, the Baltic and Caspian seas and its Far East, but alternative routes are generally slower and more expensive. More than 70% of Russian grain exports normally move through the Black Sea.
Ukraine faces an even greater logistical challenge, with ports around Odesa normally handling about 90% of its grain exports. Agricultural shipments also generate more than half of the country’s export revenue, making the blockade a problem for both farmers and government finances.
Kyiv is expanding shipments through Romania’s Constanta port and relying more heavily on roads, railways and the Danube, but capacity remains limited. About 80 mostly smaller vessels have built up around Ukrainian Danube ports as traffic shifts away from major Black Sea terminals.
Railways offer little relief, as Ukraine has more than a dozen rail crossings with neighbouring European Union countries but only around 180 grain wagons can currently cross the border each day, equivalent to roughly 10,000 tonnes of grain.
Today’s disruption could hit 2027 supply
The consequences are now extending beyond current exports to next year’s harvest. Russian farmers are cutting wheat planting because millions of tonnes of grain remain unsold at home, pushing domestic prices lower even as global prices rise.
Ten of 11 small and medium-sized Russian farmers surveyed by Bloomberg said they planned to reduce wheat acreage, generally by between 15% and 40%. Winter wheat planting was running about 20% to 30% behind last year as of this week, according to the Russian Grain Union.
Winter wheat accounts for roughly 70% of Russia’s wheat production, meaning a significant reduction in planting could tighten global supplies further in 2027. Russian farmers are also struggling with higher diesel and fertiliser costs, while some are switching to crops such as soybeans and sunflowers that are less dependent on export markets.
The pressure is particularly important for countries where affordable bread depends heavily on Black Sea supplies. Russia and Ukraine provide about half of Egypt’s wheat imports, while around two-thirds of Egyptian households are entitled to subsidised bread.
Egypt has not received Black Sea grain for about a month, and flour prices have risen sharply. A strong domestic harvest has provided some protection, however, and government stockpiles are sufficient to cover subsidised bread consumption until February.
Turkey is trying to broker another agreement similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative reached in 2022, but there are few signs so far of a breakthrough. Ukraine’s western neighbours have also become more reluctant to accommodate its grain after political opposition from local farmers.
Wheat prices have eased this month on hopes that diplomatic efforts could eventually restart Black Sea shipments, but the fighting continues and damage to ports and other infrastructure could take months or years to repair.
For food buyers such as Golden Wheat in Vietnam, that uncertainty is already affecting purchasing decisions. Vuong does not expect wheat prices to return to normal before at least March and said some of the higher costs will eventually have to be reflected in staples such as flour, even as one of his remaining cargoes continues to wait for conditions around Odesa to improve.
